Europe has pursued technology sovereignty for years with limited results. Transitioning away from established vendors like Microsoft has proven challenging: complex documents, macros and entrenched workflows resist change. But meaningful progress exists: Schleswig-Holstein's state administration shifted to open source, achieving savings of more than 15 million euros per year through Linux and LibreOffice adoption.
The landscape is changing because of large language models. The old migration obstacles were legacy document formats, custom scripts, fragile integrations, and the complexity of proprietary systems. LLMs working as coding assistants can streamline those transitions: translating formats, rewriting automation, and building compatibility layers that once required specialised expertise. They're also remarkably good at explaining software, which makes scaling help-desk support during a migration feasible for the first time.
I expect substantial transformation in desktop software, operating systems, and SaaS procurement over the coming decade. Governments and enterprises may build sovereign technology that replicates what they need from American software while operating under local governance and legal frameworks, breaking dependency on single foreign vendors through open-source foundations.